6/27/07

We're Too Young To Dye!

Supposedly Ned is kicking the tires on Jermaine Dye. Yawn... Loney has been hotter than a Chicago fire recently. Sure, he'll fall to earth some but the kid is hot and I think he's finally proven to Little and management that he's ready to be the dodgers first baseman for about the next decade or so. Loney's recent production is better luck than Ned can expect in any non-blockbuster trade for a power hitter.

Let me repeat that last sentence.

Loney's recent production is better than Ned can expect in any non-blockbuster trade for a power hitter.

Anyways, I don't think Gonzo sucks, since he's been playing well. But we might have gotten just about all we can out of the aging Gonzo. I can imagine Grady telling the press that he'll be giving Gonzo lots of rest after July to keep him fresh for the post-season. Back to reality, Gonzo's splits don't show a meaningful difference between pre and post all star game but, he sucks in August and September after a hot July with an ops in .700's for both months. So while we can expect the good times to continue to roll with Gonzo through July, expect him to fade after the July 31'st deadline. Based on that if you still feel the need totrade for power, trade away (or bench) the guy about to fall back to earth and fade in the last two critical months of the season.

Dye on the other hand plays better pre all-star than post all-star by about 60 ops points, but keeps it going better than Gonzalez with his espn month splits showing .864 ops for August and .823 for September (.740 Aug and .736 for Gonzo). Also, take into consideration that Dye has been hitting so poorly he's bound to get hot and that he can still halfway play defense and people won't run on him and maybe you have a reason to do this trade, add in a fringe prospect and hope Dye gets hot.

No, of course the White Sox don't take Gonzo when they're already trying to get rid of Dye and Gonzo makes more than Dye. But it shouldn't take much to get Dye as he is in a walk year and the White Sox have cried 'uncle' already. Also can't see much of a demand in somebody who is barely hitting his weight right now with nagging knees.

Ned would probably do best to keep Gonzo and make him a left-handed pinch-hitter off the bench for the playoff run (and also in case Dye never does get hot). Hopefully he agrees to a bench role though he's been rumored not to. I doubt Gonzo allows himself to be traded to any team without snakes on their uniform. Don't think that's going to happen unless the D-Backs have a huge slide and are totally out of the NL west race by the end of July and take him back so he can retire as a Diamondback.

So I think Dye could help. I'm not a GM so I have no clue if usurping the elder statesman of the club during the heat of the playoff race kills a team's mojo or whatever, but I would be hesitant to pull the trigger on a guy not guaranteed to help my team. Dye could just as likely be the right field version (Ethier would move back to left) of the Julio Lugo deal than the acquisition that shores up the outfield defense and picking up the torch that Gonzo was carrying and running with it.

How could I just write so much on something so unlikely to happen? Oh well. Hopefully there's better juicer rumors as we come closer to the end of next month.

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