12/7/08

Why the Dodgers Could Use Varitek

Can't believe I'm writing a post titled this.  I can't believe Varitek declined arbitration.  I still wouldn't want him.  Given the rumor that Varitek won't accept arbitration I have to predict he won't be going back to the sox and will go to the first team that will give him more than one year and more than 10 mil/per.  


So why could the dodgers use him when there's plenty of teams without decent catchers like the Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Reds, Blue Jays, Marlins, Pirates, and Royals (every team past the reds needs a catcher but won't be a player for Varitek because they either have no money or they suck too hard and are rebuilding, and nothing says rebuilding than signing a 36 year old free agent catcher to a multiyear contract)?  

To make nice with Boras.  Kinda like that article that talked about Varitek and Teixeira being packaged.  Boras decides for most of his clients where they're going and then orchestrates a plan that ensures his clients get paid the most based on where/when/how/what they sign.  

Varitek is going to have a tough time.  A team with some money to throw around like the dodgers could help Boras out with one of his tougher cases.  In return Boras could help the dodgers out in two ways that I'm aware of.
  1. Help orchestrate a trade of Andruw Jones out of L.A.
  2. Help the dodgers sign one or more of the following free agents: Manny, Teixeira, Lowe, Byung-Hyun Kim, Oliver Perez, and Joe Crede (unnecessary if Martin is moved to third)
These are both important to the dodgers.  Depending on what the dodgers really want to do this offseason, clearing out Jones' payroll or winning the free agent lottery on Manny or Teixeira may be worth downgrading at catcher and limiting production at third by moving Russell Martin there.  Clearing even most of Jones salary off the books might be what the dodgers need to be able to sign both Manny and Teixeira.  Hopefully they leave one for another team and seriously talk to Sabathia if they have that much cash to use, but hey, it's not my money.

Russell Martin to third base removes the need to negotiate further with Casey Blake and keeps Blake DeWitt at second.  Now if the dodgers hadn't traded away a great catching prospect in Carlos Santana there might never be a reason to move Martin back after Tek is gone.  

Being the surprise recipients of Teixeira would allow the dodgers to trade Loney for  a shortstop, or pitching help.  I love Loney but he can't play anywhere else and Teixeira is in his prime and ready to anchor the dodger lineup for the next 4-5 years or so (too bad the bastared can't play third base...if Teixeira was still playing first with Hank Blalock's bobbling hands at third it's pretty safe to say Teix can't play third).  Loney may only have 1 or 2 great years in him with 25-30 homers.

It initially sounds like such a bad idea, but if you really think about it what's so bad about a 15 homerish third baseman with great defense and gets on base?  Martin's offense probably gets a boost resulting in Casey Blake numbers plus a higher .obp...Varitek, despite his decline isn't a total slouch at catcher with his 13 homers and could have another bounce back year before he's toast.  He's gone from semi-elite to serviceable.

If cozying up to Scott Boras ends up netting Mark Teixeira or trading Andruw Jones for anything of value while not eating more than 20% of his salary, then it was probably more than worth the downgrade at catcher and moving Martin.  If it only helps us talk Lowe back into re-signing I'd be pretty torn about it.   Netting Oliver Perez in free agency would be quite a nice throw-in.

Anyways, I dislike Scott Boras very much and if I were a GM I would avoid his clients as much as possible.  I don't think the dodgers can help Boras out of his client's hole this time.  There's just too many teams with good, young catchers to want to sign Varitek so even a false bidding war with leaked dodgers negotiations and offers flooding the hot stove wouldn't work.  Varitek is going to have to wait a long time before teams start showing interest.  Even the promise of help with other clients can't induce such a bizarre signing with money drying up in the middle of a recession/depression.  If I had to guess it'd be the Tigers if he wants to stay in the AL or the Phillies if he goes to the NL.  O.K....I predict Phillies.

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