Finally!

This offseason the Boston red sox is like the awkward fat kid at the birthday pool party.  You saw him in his swim trunks, but he kept slowly pacing around the pool, and you kept wondering when he was going to jump in.  The red sox finally made their splash into the free agent market by signing Rocco Baldelli, a guy who's name, look, and state of origin all scream new england.  The biggest part of the splash that hit the pretty girls pretending to get a tan over their orange spraypaint was the surprise swoop up and grab of John Smoltz.  Wow.  I don't think anyone saw that coming.  If it's rotation depth and insurance against Buccholz and Masterson painfully bellyflopping at the mlb level, they now have it.  They now have Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Wakefield, Penny, and now Smoltz, with Buccholz and Masterson waiting in the wings for their chance.

I think part of me is overreacting because this is just another low risk contract to an injured pitcher that may or may not be permanently damaged goods. Smoltz is extremely old. You do have to take into account that the 4 or 5 years he closed saved a bit on the odometer in his arm. I think he'll be healthy.

Baldelli is another question mark. I'm sure he'll be at least an adequate fourth outfielder, but what if J.D. Drew performs one of his disappearing acts with some obscure injury? In my opinion, the sox might have been better served grabbing the groveling Jay Payton for the "sure thing" in the fourth outfielder market. But Baldelli could have huge upside if his health really can be kept under control enough for him to play full time or nearly full time. I think that's a reasonable risk to take. It seems that's all the red sox have done so far is bet money on injury risks. At least one of the gambles will pay off to make up for the ones that don't. For example the sox give 5 million each to Smoltz and Penny. If one of them pitches well, that's still 10 million for a good performing pitcher, which while not a coup, is still a better value than signing Jon Garland his 12 million to pitch league average plus or minus a little and having to commit 3 or 4 years to him. They both will have incentives in the deal so you would have to add 3-5 million to the 10 million, but still that equals about what you'd pay a free agent, except the red sox are only on the hook for one year.

These signings don't always work out, though. The dodgers tried a reclamation project on Randy Wolf. It pretty much failed and he was the only guy brought in so situated. If they'd signed 3 guys like that would it be worth it? You also have to take into account NRI guys like Takashi Saito latch on and have an impact, which makes up in part on money wasted on injured players, but it's a crapshoot. Why does this seem to work with pitchers but not for, let's say, center fielders?

I like the idea, I don't know if it's been done before, in this mass-signing of rehabbers hoping one or two turn out to make up for the ones that fail. I wonder if that's even the strategy the red sox are employing. Maybe they're just scrambling around, but I doubt it because it seems ridiculous that free agents wouldn't want to play for Boston since they are a winning team year after year. I'm not a sox fan, but I'm still shocked that Teixeira signed with the yankees. It still makes no sense for me with all the old people on the yanks to clog up first base. Maybe the yankees are just prepared to release guys like Matsui and eat their contracts a la L.A. and Andruw Jones. What I also don't understand is why the sox wouldn't at least attempt to keep Lowe away from the yankees by at least pretending to have interest in him. Don't think the yankees won't go bat shit crazy and add Lowe once he gets pissed enough with the Mets lowballing him to bolt and sign for less than his 16 million price tag. The media may have maligned him on the way out, but they can rehab his image for his homecoming with a line of crap about him cleaning up his personal life and straightening up after the rude awakening of the sox not wanting him back when he was previously a free agent.

o.k. I've rambled enough for today...oh wait, I forgot to mention the dodgers lost out on Trevor Hoffman. Yawn. It's o.k. It might have been a nice treat at 4-5 million with incentives, but a closer isn't really on the shopping list this offseason.