My jaw almost dropped when I read this article over at The Hardball Times. Usually their articles are pretty good and do a good job of covering both sides of the issue. I'd have to say though that this (I know I just said what I'm about to say but I want to repeat because it's just so darn bad) is the worst piece I've ever read at that web site.
The gist is that Paul DePodesta is the best unemployed GM. I can see someone making that point and it might be correct. Everything that follows is a bunch of revisionist garbage that insults my long term memory.
The author's first point is that DePodesta,
"Helped construct a roster that produced the 2004 NL West Divison title, the Dodgers' first playoff berth in eight years."
Let's look at his moves in 2004 then. He obtained these guys
- Milton Bradley, Jayson Werth, Cody Ross, Aaron Looper, Ryan Ketchner, Glenn Bott, Antonio Perez, Trey Dyson, and Brian Myrow (I will always remember cursing Jim Tracy in my head for playing that guy towards the end of the season instead of Choi in my opinion just to spite DePodesta).
- Jason Frasor, Steve Colyer, Andrew Brown, Franklin Gutierrez, Jolbert Cabrera, Aaron Looper, Jason Romano, Rick White, and Tanyon Sturtze
Then he pulled his big trade by obtaining:
- Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, Juan Encarnacion for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny, Bill Murphy
- Koyie Hill, Reggie Abercrombie, Bill Murphy for Steve Finley, Brett Mayne
The Finley trade looks good because we gave not so great prospects up for an old guy that ended up hitting the homer that clinched the division. But not so fast. Didn't the dodgers already have an old guy that could kinda run? Yeah we already had that player in Dave Roberts who we gave to the Red Sox for nothing. Well, not really. Finley may have been older and less able to steal bases but he could still pop way more homers than Roberts could ever hope for. Funny how both guys are involved in memorable, clutch plays (Roberts definately gets the edge there). While you shouldn't usually be applauding your GM for picking up some guy who is almost 40 it did help put the blue over the edge by adding power to left field over Roberts. That power came in handy. Who knows how things would have turned out differently if DePodesta hadn't traded prospects for old guys. Maybe even better long term. No idea.
Then made minor deals the rest of the way in 2004.
- Tom Martin for Matt Merricks
- Dave Roberts for Henri Stanley
- Elvin Nina for Mike Venafro
- Tony Socarras for Tom Wilson
- Jerome Milons for Elmer Dessens
Acquired Brad Penny, who has become one of the National League's best starters this season (10-1 record, 2.04 era and 1.16 WHIP).
Thing is Dodgers have had him for almost 4 seasons now. 2004 he got injured. Freak injuries happen. In 2005 Penny posted a 104 era+ just about average. If my long term memory serves me correct he pitched but his nerves were still bothering him (and the dodgers team really tanked that year due in large part to numerous injuries). In 2006 we saw what Big Bad Brad could really be about but conditioning and bravado gained from an all-star start sabotaged his 2006 post all-star performance and we end up with just another average season era+ wise. 2007 has started out like 2006 in terms of numbers, but Penny is a different pitcher. He pitches more for contact which has upped his efficiency and ability to pitch deeper into games. He stated that better conditioning has improved his back which allowed him to re-incorporate a split fingered fastball into his fine wine list of pitches. This is the year I think he's puts it all together...finally. Even factoring in salary we still didn't overpay for the big lump. Signing Penny to the extension was probably the best choice of risk and investment DePodesta ever made (in second comes Milton Bradley).
"Correctly foresaw the explosion of the free agent pitching market one year in advance, signing Derek Lowe to an excellent deal, as well as extending Penny through ’08 with an option for '09 at below-market value."
This point about pitcher's salaries I also really agree with. Paul looked into a crystal ball and foresaw that fat, mediocre pitchers like Sidney Ponson and Odalis Perez would become even fatter, suckier pitchers. His crystal ball also revealed that fat, sucky pitchers would be making close to 10 mil a year in the not so distant future and asked himself, 'Why not?' Anyways here is Odie's contract (Courtesy of Cot's):
05:$3M, 06:$7.25M, 07:$7.75M, 08:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout)
To give more background, the dodgers were running out of time and had missed out on many free agent targets because they didn't want to play here. If my long term memory serves me correctly Paul used the metaphor of free agency being similar to a game of musical chairs and he didn't want to be the last GM standing when the music stopped. Well, after the music stopped Paul handed a contract to Odie. This was one of the examples of his failings as a people person impacting his job. Many free agents shied away from L.A. that year despite tons of money to burn and DePodesta handed a contract to a guy I don't believe he had previously any intention of re-signing. Bad move. If Brad Penny is an example of how DePodesta foresaw the market he must have foreseen both ends by his signing of Perez. I just don't buy it. The author loses most of his shaky credibility by making DePodesta out to be the Nostradamus of baseball.
It's not about markets so much as it's about the talent in the market. If the talent in the market sucks, compensate for that in other markets.
Dodgers paid the same amounts to bad talent and good talent. A huge part of a GM's job is evaluating talent. Every dog has his day and Depodesta is no different. He gave some money to the right guys and turned around and gave the same types of deals to the wrong guys. Even in '07 Perez's contract still bites, so not all his pitching contracts were shrewd even in the long term. Colletti dropped the ball with Pierre. DePodesta dropped the ball with Odie. Colletti struck gold with Furcal and DePodesta struck gold with Penny.
"Signed Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew to favorable contracts, both of which yielded effective performance relative to the size and length of their deals."
These guys were also signed relatively late in the offseason, giving the indication that these marriages were mutually not the first choice of either party. I'm going to avoid discussing Kent at length. Suffice it to say Kent is an o.k. contract. Kent hits well for a second baseman and has propped up many offensively starved dodger teams. He is well into his decline phase now and I think this is his last year. His power is gone and that was the last thing he had going for him.
For Drew we should first look at contemporaneous contracts signed by other free agents that year.
His opting out probably makes the deal more favorable to the dodgers (despite Colletti wigging out about it) for a few reasons. The first half of '07 may not be ca-ching!itis as much as it really is Drew starting the decline phase of his career. Second, with Matt Kemp, Ethier, and perhaps even James Loney all staking out a claim in an outfield spot there may not have been room for drew in the last 2 years anyways of the deal anyways. Opting out forced the dodgers to resort to a player that required less commitment to keep a spot warm for whichever kids were ready. This may pay dividends next season with a cheaper and younger outfield (except for Colletti's knee jerk acquisition of that Juan Pierre guy).
I think it's hard to view or measure baseball contracts in the sense of ever being shrewd (Maybe that's the argument that made this point not sit well for me and my inability to articulate why). It's more like luckily happening not to obscenely overpay. It's another version of the Odie versus Lowe problem just with position players.
Does Odie's bad contract cancel out Lowe's decent one? I'm not sure. I think what the two contracts together do say is something we've known all along. It's about whom you choose to give a contract to before the amount of dollars. Even a paltry 7-8 million a year is wasted if you choose to give it to someone like Odie. 12 mil is alot better served when handed to Derek Lowe. Problem is we don't know who's going to let their personal failings kill their career and who will overcome them. Lowe stumbled on the mound during his divorce year. Happened to be the same year the dodgers sucked anyways due to injuries. Looked like a bad deal then. Lowe put up shut up and came back the next year and has his mojo back. Looks like a good deal now. Odie, well, not so much. He started up a negative feedback loop between his performance and the players behind him that I don't think he will overcome psychologically. That and his ever expanding waistline.
"Avoided the temptation to out-bid all comers for Adrian Beltre, who has yet to justify the five year, $64 million deal given to him by Seattle after one of the greatest contract-drive walk years in history."
According to Paul he never got a chance to out-bid all comers. Again, the author gives DePodesta the ability to see the future mediocrity of Beltre without looking at how things were unfolding at the time. DePodesta drew out negotiating with Boras regarding Beltre. This isn't surprising as that's how Boras plays. Thing is, Boras does have a drop dead date in mind for that player because of other clients who's deals will be negotiated with previous player's deal to go by. DePodesta didn't blink and Boras took his client to sign a deal with Seattle without giving the dodgers the opportunity to even match it. Boras turns around and uses his leverage (most free agents gone, kind of expensive guys with character question marks remaining) to secure lucrative deals very, very quickly later on with Drew and Lowe.
"Correctly foresaw the explosion of the free agent pitching market one year in advance, signing Derek Lowe to an excellent deal, as well as extending Penny through ’08 with an option for '09 at below-market value."
This point about pitcher's salaries I also really agree with. Paul looked into a crystal ball and foresaw that fat, mediocre pitchers like Sidney Ponson and Odalis Perez would become even fatter, suckier pitchers. His crystal ball also revealed that fat, sucky pitchers would be making close to 10 mil a year in the not so distant future and asked himself, 'Why not?' Anyways here is Odie's contract (Courtesy of Cot's):
05:$3M, 06:$7.25M, 07:$7.75M, 08:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout)
To give more background, the dodgers were running out of time and had missed out on many free agent targets because they didn't want to play here. If my long term memory serves me correctly Paul used the metaphor of free agency being similar to a game of musical chairs and he didn't want to be the last GM standing when the music stopped. Well, after the music stopped Paul handed a contract to Odie. This was one of the examples of his failings as a people person impacting his job. Many free agents shied away from L.A. that year despite tons of money to burn and DePodesta handed a contract to a guy I don't believe he had previously any intention of re-signing. Bad move. If Brad Penny is an example of how DePodesta foresaw the market he must have foreseen both ends by his signing of Perez. I just don't buy it. The author loses most of his shaky credibility by making DePodesta out to be the Nostradamus of baseball.
It's not about markets so much as it's about the talent in the market. If the talent in the market sucks, compensate for that in other markets.
Dodgers paid the same amounts to bad talent and good talent. A huge part of a GM's job is evaluating talent. Every dog has his day and Depodesta is no different. He gave some money to the right guys and turned around and gave the same types of deals to the wrong guys. Even in '07 Perez's contract still bites, so not all his pitching contracts were shrewd even in the long term. Colletti dropped the ball with Pierre. DePodesta dropped the ball with Odie. Colletti struck gold with Furcal and DePodesta struck gold with Penny.
"Signed Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew to favorable contracts, both of which yielded effective performance relative to the size and length of their deals."
These guys were also signed relatively late in the offseason, giving the indication that these marriages were mutually not the first choice of either party. I'm going to avoid discussing Kent at length. Suffice it to say Kent is an o.k. contract. Kent hits well for a second baseman and has propped up many offensively starved dodger teams. He is well into his decline phase now and I think this is his last year. His power is gone and that was the last thing he had going for him.
For Drew we should first look at contemporaneous contracts signed by other free agents that year.
- Troy Glaus also signed in '05 for 4/45 mil. Whoever negotiated that deal should get congratulations. Too bad Arizona thought so highly of Chad Tracy.
- Beltre got an average of almost 13 mil/year for 5 years. Turned out badly.
- Sexson got a little over 50 over 4 heavily backloaded. Turned out badly.
- Delgado got 4/52 heavily backloaded. Turning out o.k.
- Beltran was the premier outfielder and he got 119 over 7=17 mil/year. Turning out very badly
- Moises Alou 7.25 1yr with 6mil player option. Bargain.
His opting out probably makes the deal more favorable to the dodgers (despite Colletti wigging out about it) for a few reasons. The first half of '07 may not be ca-ching!itis as much as it really is Drew starting the decline phase of his career. Second, with Matt Kemp, Ethier, and perhaps even James Loney all staking out a claim in an outfield spot there may not have been room for drew in the last 2 years anyways of the deal anyways. Opting out forced the dodgers to resort to a player that required less commitment to keep a spot warm for whichever kids were ready. This may pay dividends next season with a cheaper and younger outfield (except for Colletti's knee jerk acquisition of that Juan Pierre guy).
I think it's hard to view or measure baseball contracts in the sense of ever being shrewd (Maybe that's the argument that made this point not sit well for me and my inability to articulate why). It's more like luckily happening not to obscenely overpay. It's another version of the Odie versus Lowe problem just with position players.
Does Odie's bad contract cancel out Lowe's decent one? I'm not sure. I think what the two contracts together do say is something we've known all along. It's about whom you choose to give a contract to before the amount of dollars. Even a paltry 7-8 million a year is wasted if you choose to give it to someone like Odie. 12 mil is alot better served when handed to Derek Lowe. Problem is we don't know who's going to let their personal failings kill their career and who will overcome them. Lowe stumbled on the mound during his divorce year. Happened to be the same year the dodgers sucked anyways due to injuries. Looked like a bad deal then. Lowe put up shut up and came back the next year and has his mojo back. Looks like a good deal now. Odie, well, not so much. He started up a negative feedback loop between his performance and the players behind him that I don't think he will overcome psychologically. That and his ever expanding waistline.
"Avoided the temptation to out-bid all comers for Adrian Beltre, who has yet to justify the five year, $64 million deal given to him by Seattle after one of the greatest contract-drive walk years in history."
According to Paul he never got a chance to out-bid all comers. Again, the author gives DePodesta the ability to see the future mediocrity of Beltre without looking at how things were unfolding at the time. DePodesta drew out negotiating with Boras regarding Beltre. This isn't surprising as that's how Boras plays. Thing is, Boras does have a drop dead date in mind for that player because of other clients who's deals will be negotiated with previous player's deal to go by. DePodesta didn't blink and Boras took his client to sign a deal with Seattle without giving the dodgers the opportunity to even match it. Boras turns around and uses his leverage (most free agents gone, kind of expensive guys with character question marks remaining) to secure lucrative deals very, very quickly later on with Drew and Lowe.
I don't think DePodesta knew how a big time negotiation really went and got balled by Boras. He's the best (or worst depending on your perspective). This was another example of DePodesta's lack of interpersonal skills came to hurt him as an employed GM. That's not all his fault. He was new. I think most GM's probably should get a pass for being taken to the cleaners on their first, huge free agent negotiation.
- Sabermetric dodger fans liked the Schmidt signing when announced.
- Pierre isn't ideal but neither was Jason Grabowski or Jayson Werth.
- Author forgot to mention the Japanese failure at third base.
- Author fails to mention how even Gumpish minds figured it was a bad idea to combine Jeff Kent and Milton Bradley.
- Author mistakenly says Choi headed back to Japan after washing out of the major leagues. Choi has never played in Japan, is Korean and in Korea.
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