It Is So Not Over

Yeah, the season is officially over for the Dodgers, but this blog isn't over and neither are the dodgers as an organization. They are basically on the right path.So much has happened since I got too busy to keep up with posting I almost don't know where to begin.
First off, Shae Hillenbrand may be the worst defensive player to ever don a dodger uniform. He definitely is the worst defensive third baseman I've seen play for the dodgers and it's pretty hard to out-butcher Pedro Guerrero. He got a lot of balls hit to him and he butchered every play. The one that stood out was when he dove for a ball about 4 inches to his left, the ball bounces off the heel of his glove in front of him, and he rushes up, grabs the ball and proceeds to throw it a few feet over Loney's head. Shae's glovework probably accounted for at least 4 of the pardres 7 runs. You can't put bad defense behind Derek Lowe! Anyways I went to the dodger game at Petco and here are a few more observations from there besides Shae. Peavy piched. Peavy owned. Peavy shut out the dodgers. About half the crowd were dodger

fans and that really took me aback to hear as much cheering for the blue as for the padres. Those cheers quickly quieted down once the game began and the padres started spanking the dodgers. The game to me put an exclamation point on the idea that it was probably a bad idea to trade away the most durable third baseman on the team in favor of brittle Nomar. I liked the idea of Weinerschnitzel hot dogs as the padres official hot dog. Petco has a very nice television and tons of modern flat screens almost everywhere you go in the concourses. San Diego was swelteringly hot in the low to mid 90's while I was there. Not much cooler than Nevada at that time.

Now to last night's game. I have no clue why one would choose to put the twelfth pitcher into a close and late game but that is just what Grady did and Roberto Hernandez proceeded to get knocked around and that ended up being the ball game as well as the season. It's almost as if Grady wanted to end all the fans hopes from not yet being mathematically out of the race. I have no idea what Little was thinking but I'd love to know the story behind that move.



Now to talk of the future. First course in the offseason meal would be the appetizers. First appetizer would be praying for Jason Schmidt's arm. Schmidt was a gamble worth making but unfortunately it turned out almost worst case scenario for L.A. Second is removing all contact information off the phones, rolodex, and computers for the following players: Roberto Hernandez, Shae Hillenbrand, and Rudy Seanez. No fan should have to consider the fact that any one of these players should have a role of any kind next season.

Next course in the offseason meal would be to deal with Jeff Kent. His 9 million dollar 2008 option vested. His comments to the media might be what makes Mrs. McCourt finally fall out of love with the surly veteran. He probably would retire or relent to being traded if the McCourt's were sufficiently disenchanted by Kent's comments to let him know that if he chooses to come back he most likely won't be the starting second baseman. If there's one thing Kent has, it's a lot of pride. This is a pretty pie in the sky prediction as Kent is still a reliable power hitter that lead the team in home runs, something that is the dodgers most glaring shortcoming. If the move happened it would be a huge statement by management that the kids rule and there doesn't need to be a veteran anchor to guide them, or at least not one that seems to piss off even the quietest and well behaved of the kids, James Loney. The more I think about Kent's failure to be accountable for "his" team the more entrenched I become in the idea that it is time for the dodgers and Kent to part ways and let him sulk and take shots at his teammates elsewhere. This isn't the D-Rays. James Loney is no Elijah Dukes in the character department. I have yet to see Matt Kemp throw bats at umps a la Delmon Young. These are good kids. Their numbers were good down the stretch to boot.

The next course is even more cringe inducing. What to do with Nomar? Loney clearly owns first base. Nomar's always hurt. He was a shell of the 2006 Nomar. He is arguably part of the reason the dodgers faded a bit after the trade deadline because Colletti gambled that Nomar could stay healthy enough to play third base for 50 games or so to trade Wilson Betemit for Scott Proctor and Nomar couldn't do it. He's a marquee name guy with no position but still has another guaranteed year on his contract. Awkward. Well if Kent retires you could stick Nomar at second and hope for the best. Tony Abreu will be able to back him up well enough when he gets injured. Maybe 20 homers come back. Maybe not. The question marks surrounding Nomar are bigger than his nose.

What to do about third base in general is a question almost as awkward as what to do with Nomar. I really doubt the Dodgers seriously go after Alex Rodriguez. I doubt it mostly because of ARod's agent and the dodgers' GM. I definitely believe ARod cannot be ruled out because of McCourt's past history of wanting to go after Vlad and being denied by the league because of the debt ratio during his purchase of the dodgers. Beyond the nuclear option, LaRoche has shown he can play, but his back has shown he could be a player that you just can't rely upon for 150 games. I think that may depend upon his work ethic. Still, do you really want to anoint a 24 year old the third baseman of the future who already had to stay out of the lineup because of his back? I don't know. I'll be o.k. either way.

Maybe Furcal getting hurt is the best thing that could have happened to the dodgers. He's highly paid, likely to draw attention and good value back if he's shopped. I think Hu's recent play may put the seed into management's mind that Hu could be their guy and Furcal may either be expendable or best moved off shortstop because of the ankle. Which leads to where Furcal could be moved to...

I think the outfield is pretty settled and that Kemp and Ethier are both full time outfielders for next year. Pierre should be given away if at all possible. Pierre is o.k., but the dodgers don't need him. Pierre was a knee jerk acquisition from a GM just burned by Scott Boras. They don't even have to worry about getting more than a B prospect back. Shuffling center could go a bunch of ways.
If you keep Furcal and commit to Hu either of these guys could be capable center fielders that come equipped with a throwing arm better than Pierre's. Switching Furcal to center could help save Furcal's ankle if the injury is really that bad and he refuses or isn't a candidate for surgery. Either Furcal or Hu and/or LaRoche could be traded for a good, young center fielder (Ellsbury but that is pretty much impossible now as he played well at the mlb level and raised his value a lot. Thankfully though, Boston could still use a shortstop so I can keep hope alive). A trade with Boston just seems to fit so well. Boston wants to get rid of a center fielder and the dodgers may need to decide between keeping prospect Hu (he's 23 already) or dispensing of Furcal (last year of contract in '08). And the Sox sure could use a shortstop (what else is new). Hopefully if something happens it isn't Crisp for Furcal. That would make me a sad panda. It's not worth it unless L.A. can talk Boston out of Ellsbury, even if it means including LaRoche. With all the kids that have starting jobs now and if the blue gets rid of Furcal and Kent, ARod could be easily paid for to shore up third.

The worst option would be handing the job to Jason Repko. That option would be the one option worse than keeping Pierre. Repko's middle name is injured and when he is playing it's not that much better than Pierre. He does have an arm though and plays all out. He just can't be counted on and is more like a 4'th or 5'th outfielder. Furcal was hurt this year and it shows in his stats. His .333 .obp is the same as Pierre's and his slugging % only .001 points better than Pierre. Is Furcal done? Should the Dodgers sell? Would he be open to moving off shortstop? Will his ankle require surgery? I guess we'll see.

Pitcher con Bleu Cheese
All these courses and no meat yet? Where's the Beef!?! The meat of course would be pitching. Thing is, pitching is expensive to produce and purchase just like beef. There seems to be a bandwagon to cut ties with Randy Wolf and hopefully never see his injured left arm again. They talk about his season like it was Schmidtesque. He pitched about 100 innings of about league average pitching for 7.5 million dollars. Believe me, that's not that bad. What I would do is work out a deal to pay him what he made last year (including the buyout of the option) and hope again for the best while not counting on him for 200 innings. Yeah, pitching is that valuable. There's also talk about non-tendering Mark Hendrickson. Why? Yeah, he sucks. That's a good thing to a point. He'll lose his arbitration hearing for sure, and he's better than whomever you could sign to replace him to pitch out of the pen as a swing man (would you rather another round of Elmer Dessens?). He'll probably end up starting a few games which isn't good but it shouldn't be over 8 or so starts if pitcher's arms start falling off towards the middle of the season. The way I see it, here's who the dodgers have:

Brad Penny
Derek Lowe
Chad Billingsley
?Esteban Loaiza?

??Hong-Chi Kuo??
???Jason Schmidt???

Saito
Broxton
Proctor
Beimel
Meloan
Hendrickson
??Tsao??
??Brazoban??

The good news is there are potentially three aces there. Lowe and to a lesser extant Penny *NEED* a good infield defense behind them. Colletti and Little failed them this year with some of the guys playing infield positions at certain points in the season (Hillenbrand, Nomar, Kent and perhaps the injured Furcal a tiny bit). Inexperience too messed up defense a bit (Betemit, Hu, Loney a few times) but that can be learned and improved upon as the season goes on for those young guys. To a lesser extant runs can be kept off the board by the subtraction of at least Gonzo from left field. Maybe Pierre if some of the proposed moves from above happen. The noodle arm rep to some extant will be erased and a few extra bases taken away from opposing offenses against dodger pitching.

But I digress...Everyone with ?'s by them are injury question marks. As I see it assuming L.A. re-signs Saito that the dodgers have 10 pitchers they can count on, 4 of those being starters. By the middle of the year young pitchers McDonald and maybe Elbert (injury ?)or Kershaw (too young ?) could be given a shot at pitching at the mlb level. So it's not as if the dodgers are barren as far as internal pitching options. McDonald might actually have a chance to make the team out of spring training. In a way, it depends on how well (or badly) the question mark guys do as opposed to how well the non-question mark guys perform compared to last year. I'm assuming they tender Hendrickson here. I like the idea of re-signing Wolf for what he made last year. L.A. can't count on Loaiza pitching more than 100 innings next year either even though he isn't hurt at the moment. Let's all hope that while the dodgers are short on pitching that Colletti doesn't go sign any of the underwhelming cast of free agent characters on the market and sticks with the guns he has as that would just throw dodger money into a black hole. One kid (McDonald) with the lowest ceiling might be ready now while the bigger talents like Elbert, Morris, and Kershaw are still 1/2 to 3 seasons away (Kershaw is still only 19).

Next I'd talk to Derek Lowe's agent, Scott Boras and ask him to ask Lowe if he'd like to negotiate a two or three year extension. It most likely won't go anywhere but it wouldn't hurt to try. Boras will make sure Lowe is paid. If you don't believe me look at Jeff Weaver's paycheck.

Dang, I need to split this up into parts and repost it later...