There's a ton of expiring contracts at the end of this season that hasn't started yet. Let's:
- See who the dodgers are better off to let leave.
- Who's worth getting on the free agent market.
I'm going to predict Nomar stays. I'm guessing with his new family he will want to stay in Los Angeles and being all banged up won't mind transitioning to a super utility pinch hitter role. I'll predict he agrees to a pay cut to the 4 or 5 million range. He might even get a 2 or 3 year deal in exchange for the pay cut. That's o.k. by me as long as he's going to be an excellent version of Ramon Martinez. Maybe he'll do some second base but that seems begging for another injury for Nomar.
Jeff Kent is done, World Series appearance or not. He's showing his age in the field, and he doesn't play so well with others. Lowe must curse him out in his head when a ball is hit up the middle. Maybe he goes back to the Giants with Bonds gone and San Fran having no good position players. It's best that he goes from the dodgers. The blue have too many good, young players to keep him. Abreu could take his place. Hu is or is almost ready to take a middle infield spot as well if he keeps showing that pop in his bat. Neither will have the power of Kent, but Kent was an extraordinary second baseman.
Rafael Furcal was brought in to try to turn the franchise around and provide a durable, all-star type guy to hit at the top of the order and provides a good amount of everything. He was injured last year but played through it, so he sucked offensively. I think it would be best for the dodgers to just let him go land his last long contract with another team to pay his decline years. He buoyed up the dodgers while they turned over the roster, twice. He'd be expensive, and with Abreu and Hu ready to take over, the money would probably be best spent to improve elsewhere.
Ramon Martinez is totally expendable. He's more like GM Ned Colletti's pet. He may not even have a job on the big club if nobody gets injured. My prediction is Nomar becomes the new Ramon Martinez making the real one redundant. Ramon will probably head elsewhere for a chance at more playing time.
Gary Bennett is pretty expendable as a backup catcher. He doesn't really matter and the dodgers will look for an upgrade who's willing to back up a catcher who plays so many games. Not much to say. On to the pitchers.
Derek Lowe has been a great pitcher. His contract was viewed as pretty bad when it occured but it has turned out pretty well for the dodgers. He had a bad year during his divorce. The dodgers defense hasn't helped him out much and still failed him a bit last year with shaky defense at third (Shea was the worst), a hurt Furcal, and an old Kent. Lowe should have a better year if the infield defense is going to be the best it's been (besides Kent) in years.
But Lowe is a Boras client, has already expressed his desire to try out the free agent waters next winter, his replacement Kershaw will be ready, Lowe's getting up there in age, and is going to be expensive.
I predict Lowe goes back to Boston. He wasn't wanted because of his party boy reputation. Now that he's reformed Boston would be happy to re-embrace him (especially since Schilling may be done). Lowe is going to be very desirable. He's consistent and versatile (experience as a closer in Boston). They also should have the money for him. Seems like a great fit.
Loaiza is going to be bought out of his option. He's kind of superfluous. He sucked when he was brought in and is a long shot for the rotation barring injuries. He's just another Brett Tomko, and I think Ned Colletti has realized that gambling on that type of talent coming through isn't worth it anymore, especially with the pitching prospects finally ready to come up and fill that role of swingman/spot starter/5'th starter.
The Legend of Joe Beimel notwithstanding, it is kind of legendary how Beimel went from a bad lefty specialist that was getting shelled to an above average, and pretty consistent reliever. That is not too easy to find in a predictable way. Usually you just go through your system or through the waiver wire and keep throwing guys out there until someone sticks. Beimel has 2 good years under his belt now. It's important to note that last year he lost a pretty ugly arbitration case with the dodgers that he probably lost because of his irresponsibility of cutting his hand in a bar during the playoffs. That in mind, would Beimel even want to stay here when he's granted free agency? He should be in pretty high demand given what guys that bring nothing besides being lefty get (like Ray I'm not fat!-I'm just thick!-King) so it would behoove the dodgers to try to hand him an offer he will find very hard to refuse. whatever it was that caused Beimel to turn from a pumpkin into a prince we'll probably never know. Maybe it's the hair. Offering to extend Beimel for 3 years $9 million with incentives I think would be a pretty good deal for both sides. Beimel may still turn back into a pumpkin so he gets some security. The dodgers lock up a guy that may continue to be an above average lefty (something the dodgers lack--except for him) and if he does turn back into a pumpkin, eating $3 million a year isn't going to kill the payroll. I predict the dodgers keep him, but only on a one year deal, year to year for a couple of years.
So we keep Nomar, Penny, and Beimel I predict the dodgers keep. I predict all the rest leave via free agency. On to number 2.
2. I guess I'll go position by position with who could help the dodgers next season.
First base depends on whether Sweeney bolts or retires after this year. Dodgers already have Nomar to back up Loney, but having a lefty pinch hitting specialist is an o.k. thing. There's not that much out there that would be ready to step into such a limited role. Not that important anyway.
Second base. With Kent going this could be an opportunity to land a great second baseman. Unfortunately the only great second baseman is Orlando Hudson. The presence of Abreu and Hu probably make going after Hudson not very probable. You gotta think that at least one of the two if not both will make it as good major league starters.
Shortstop. Not many good options. Furcal will be the premier free agent at that position and will require even more per year in his next contract if he has a normal season for him. Renteria is a close second only because he's a few years older. Orlando Cabrera is a step below both Furcal and Rentaria. Might as well stay with the youth movement at this position also.
Third base. No A-Rods in the group. If LaRoche gets his chance and fails the dodgers may want to upgrade if the other younger players continue to blossom and they feel they can 'win now' by adding Chipper Jones to a 3 year deal. The guy can flat out hit. He's getting older but really hasn't slowed down except for a few injuries. He's a difference maker and would be a great number three hitter ahead of Andruw Jones. I don't think Chipper is going anywhere unless the Braves go really cheap with him. He's probably an $18-$20 million player. And with Lowe and Furcal gone, they could afford to add him.
Catcher. The dodgers aren't going to add a named catcher unless something terrible happens to Martin. Just looking at these options just makes me really wish he holds up, because all the catchers are either too old or just suck. The marquee free agents will be Ivan Rodriguez and Varitek. I don't think the dodgers would go there. I think they would just get a retread that is good defensively and stick him in the 8'th hole.
Outfielders. If the dodgers do something stupid and get rid of Ethier while failing to get rid of Pierre, they might want to upgrade left field. They could make up for the mistake by targeting Carl Crawford. Crawford brings an all around game. He can run base like Juan Pierre (always wanted a legitimate reason to type that), has some power, and gets on base at a better rate than Pierre. In addition, he is about to hit his prime. Problem is, the team has a '09 option on him and will almost certainly keep him.
Baldelli would be the next best option. He's like Crawford but with more problems. He's not as quick. He's got an injury history, which in an article they identified why he keeps pulling stuff and it won't be a problem anymore, so I guess we'll see. He's forbidden fruit also since he's got team options going all the way to '11.
Can't count out either Abreu or Manny if the dodgers feel they are just a number 3 hitter away from a world series appearance. Manny is 2 years older, but hits for more power while getting on base at about the same rate. Abreu is extremely patient and gets on base like a mad man, but he doesn't have the power Manny has. I have no idea how the market for them is going to work. Manny may not be able to land what he deserves because of his eccentricities. He'll definitely get paid, though. Landing either of those two is another win-now move to get a veteran player who can impact the 3 spot in the order, which may be a need depending on how the young players develop.
Starting Pitching. If the dodgers want a starter it will probably be a lefty. The knowable rotation will be Penny Billingsley Kuroda and maybe Schmidt. All right handers. Assuming Kershaw is 2009 ready this may not be an issue. They may just say they want to get another lefty in case Kershaw runs into some problems. Two lefties isn't a bad thing. C.C. Sabathia would seem to be the cream of the free agent crop. Oliver Perez is another good lefty, but he's inconsistent. I like him, but I don't know if I'd pay him 12-15 million over 4-5 years after his wild streak that got him sent to the minors. He's young though. So is C.C., but the wrinkle on him is his conditioning. A feel good story would be signing Pedro Martinez to a one year deal in his swan song year if the dodgers lose out on all the good, young pitchers and go for a veteran. Out of the good younger righties I'd want Sheets and a distant second Harden. There are tons of veteran starters but they usually want to stick where they are for the most part.
Relievers. I like Juan Cruz because he looks like a crackhead. Scott Downs would be a great addition as the second lefty Torre desires if they fail to get one that works in '08. Brian Fuentes would fit the bill as well as depriving a rival of a good lefty reliever (don't think he'd sign with a team that couldn't make him a closer, and I don't think it would be fair to Broxton to replace Saito with a free agent should Saito retire after '08. Rafael Soriano would be a great pickup. My feel good story would be signing Okajima (even though he'll almost certainly be kept by Boston) and have the first Japanese setup/closer combo in the major leagues (sorry Broxton). Truth is the dodgers can't really target anybody unless Saito decides to retire because every good reliever wants to at least have a shot at fighting for the closer role with Broxton. Also the dodgers have a lot of young pitchers that will probably shore up the bullpen when injuries occur and arms tire. Meloan could be a late inning guy and hopefully Greg Miller if he's truly figured out his wildness. Miller would be the best gift since he's a lefty and throws hard. Maybe Proctor's arm really does fall off... K-Rod may be pissed off enough at the Angels to bolt. That would be something to pounce on should Saito retire (sorry Broxton).
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