Some Things Have Gone Down, So What's Up Now?

I made a way aggressive and hopeful offseason wish list a month or two ago about how I wanted the offseason to go down.  Significant stuff has happened since.  ARod came crawling back and the Yankees and Jacoby Ellsbury raised his trade value into the stratosphere if not completely untouchable.  So now I'll update. I think I will go by position this time around.

First Base

I think it's finally safe to say that Loney has the job locked up.  Loney should improve on last year, and I think he might especially outperform in the power department.  No platoon or backup plans needed, although Loney did get injured banging into a wall and did have one significant injury in the minors.  The only caveat to all this Loney giddiness is that his AAA numbers before he was called up were kind of mediocre.  I'd attribute it to being pissed off he was replaying AAA despite outperforming Nomar, but could be wrong.

Second Base

I still hopes Kent retires, and his refusal to say one way or another after the hiring of Torre keeps my hopes alive that he'll stay home this spring training.  There are three options for Kent:  

1. Retire 
2. Return and play 
3. Return but request to be moved.
   

I'm hoping for number 3, but I'm predicting number two right now.  Spring training could turn 2 to 3 if Tony Abreu has a magnificent spring and Torre edges towards committing playing time for Abreu at second.  Kent's competitive fire will be stoked and he'll demand a trade for being disrespected for all he's contributed to the team while they sucked, carrying the team, yada yada yada...hope that little tirade happens and he goes to the Mets or Giants.  

Whether Kent stays or goes the dodgers should be solid at the position with Abreu seemingly ready to take over.  He'll have less power, far less patience, but he'll hit about 10 homers or so in a full season while playing a much better defensive second than Kent can.

Shortstop

I'm guessing Furcal isn't going anywhere, although in my opinion he should be moved in a market where many teams are short on premium middle infielders, and the free agent market is weak for everything except center fielders.  Furcal would either be the best or right behind Tejada (who really isn't a shortstop) in terms of trade-available shortstops.  However, the dodgers front office and team has had so much turnover that any stable player that can be counted on for star performance needs to be held onto and not dealt.  I disagree, but I can understand the thinking.  

Furcal sucked last year but played hurt (don't know why) all year.  He should be fine by spring training per everything I've managed to read, but if he somehow isn't, the team shouldn't be so scared to go to either Abreu or Chin-lung Hu with the way they've played when given the opportunity.  They've both showed some pop and the defense has never been a question.  My Furcal and LaRoche for Ellsbury most likely won't happen (even though it seems pretty tempting if I imagined myself a Sox fan and if Lowell ends up bolting) with the way the kid played in the world series.

Third Base

With Alex Rodriguez off the market, there's no use in trying to upgrade third.  Bagging Mike Lowell would be a waste as he wouldn't be able to perform and the Marlins are being so unreasonable that we might as well just watch what I predict:  The talent required to trade for Cabrera falls or the trade leverage the Marlins falls as: 

1. Time passes meaning it's closer to opening day and he's closer and closer to free agency.
2. Other teams fill their third base needs through other trades or other free agents.
3. The team(s) left after #2 are still in the market but don't have to trade for him because they have decent options at third already or alternative options emerge during spring training.
   

As long as the teams that would like to upgrade at third base have viable options and can "take him or leave him" the marlins demands have to go down the closer Cabrera gets to free agency because the entire league knows he has to be traded eventually.  As long as the teams keep a viable offer (an MLB ready replacement for 3'rd base, an elite pitching prospect or an MLB ready young starting pitcher, and somebody else; either another young pitcher or anyone that can at least fake playing center field) on the table and stick to it and keep in touch every two weeks or so (yeah, I'm imagining how GM'ing works, I have no idea) the offer should eventually take as nobody else is going to be able to top that, and if they do good luck to that team as they've overpaid.  

As I've said in an earlier post about trading for Cabrera, I don't believe the dodgers should go over a package of

Kershaw, LaRoche, Meloan and Pierre plus $12 million

or

Elbert, LaRoche, Broxton, D. Young or Abreu, and Pierre plus $16 million

I think I'm remembering that right.   I cannot think of a team that can outdo the Kershaw package.  Nobody else that would do business with the Marlins has a premium mlb ready third base prospect, making the dodgers the team the fish most need to trade with to not create a hole at third base.  That's just my opinion anyways. 

Oh yeah, a prediction.  The marlins will continue to think that L.A. will eventually cave-in and overpay because the big market team's G.M. will feel he'll have to make a splash to keep his job by upgrading his offense.  However, the dodgers won't blink and they will keep re-iterating that they are prepared to go with LaRoche if they do not find a suitable trade that benefits them enough.  The dodgers will go with LaRoche (with Nomar getting too many starts perhaps at first) and the marlins will end up stuck with Cabrera and being financially forced into trading and receiving back less for Willis to some other team.  Sportswriters will be left wondering why fan favorite Willis was shipped out, why Cabrera wasn't the one to go, and how much less he'll fetch next offseason because of his higher weight and higher price tag.

Catchers

Russell Martin is a pimp.  If there has been any individual player that deserves to wear the C on his uniform, it's this guy.  All the dodgers need to find is a guy that could perhaps teach Martin a few things and is willing to play only 30 games a year as his backup.  This shouldn't be too hard, and hopefully they come to some agreement with Lieberthal at a million or so, but the catcher market seems to have gone buckwild (i.e. Torrealba et. al getting $2-4 million a year for multiple years).  No idea why this is happening but if I were Lieberthal or even a mediocre catcher I would be salivating.

Outfield

The first priority should be finding some team willing to trade for Juan Pierre.  That way the dodgers and Pierre can part ways and Pierre can be grateful that he was traded to a team where he can keep on starting everyday.  Latest rumor has it the White Sox would be willing to take him on.  I see of course the possibility of sending him back to Florida highly subsidized in a Cabrera deal.  Aaron Rowand is written as a possibility, but I think his stadium helped him like Mike Lowell. The dodgers shouldn't pay a few million more dollars per year for even more years for a player who is only slightly younger, less speedy, and less athletic.  On the offensive side he has a bit more power in a good year and gets on base more consistently.  He could be a decent number two hitter after Furcal (but his strikeouts could hurt the offense with him in that spot).  On defense, he'd come with a good reputation deserved or not and writers would have to stop mentioning opponents running wild.  Signing Rowand would be bad money chasing worse.

Getting rid of Pierre frees the dodgers up on signing Andruw Jones, hopefully to a one year contract if he wants to re-establish value, or something like 5/$110 million if he's going for his last contract despite the down year.  I don't particularly want Jones but if the dodgers want to add a big bat, Jones is the best free agent one now that ARod is no longer an option.  Kemp and Ethier finally get full seasons at the corners with perhaps Delwyn Young being the fourth outfielder.  I'm going to go out on a huge limb and predict Repko stays hurt or re-injures himself quickly.  Maybe he's even non-tendered. 

If they miss out on the big game in the free agent market, they could visit (or re-visit) trades with the d-rays, marlins, indians, or the red sox (not very likely), as there are tons of decent to good young outfielders out there and it wouldn't take much besides a decent pitching prospect to get a good one.  The team could also just start Delwyn Young and see if he is for real, that is if he isn't traded away.  They can promote Raglani or Javier Paul if Young is traded or injuries occur.  If all else fails or there are injuries well...maybe Choo Freeman will still be around.  I think at least Kemp and Ethier have proven themselves enough that there needn't be a Reggie Sanders type player brought in to play at their expense.

My prediction is they do snag Aaron Rowand on a Furcal-type short deal (3 years/$48-50 million) and he doesn't hit much better than Pierre.  He will however, make the highlights on sports center quite a few times and the team's runs allowed is down because of the improved defense.  On the whole Rowand will be an improvement, but still overpaid.  Just gotta hope one of the aforementioned kids in the dodgers' system makes Rowand expendable during one of Rowand's DL stints.  

Starting Pitching

Right now they have Brad Penny, Derek Lowe in his walk year who has already stated he'd like to test free agency (translation:  No discount and no extension negotiation), Chad Billingsley, a question mark in free agent bust Jason Schmidt, and an even bigger question mark in Esteban Loaiza.  After that you have Mark Hendrickson and Hong-Chi Kuo.  Hendrickson may not even be tendered a contract and Kuo is an injury risk.  After that you have a group of 27-28 year old AAA+ pitchers like Hull, Houlton, and Stults.  I like Stults the best out of that bunch.  Younger pitchers that could break out and be given an MLB stint could be Kershaw if he isn't traded and continues to straight up dominate double A hitters.  James McDonald is supposed to be a lower ceiling guy who is closer to being ready so maybe he gets a shot.  The pitchers came along more slowly than the hitters in the dodgers system.  If none come up this year it is almost certain impact starting prospect pitchers will work their way up for '09 barring injury.

Bench

No idea.  Sweeney has already had another team express interest in him.  The Big Tomato is gone and was probably toast anyways.  Ramon Martinez is redundant with Abreu and Hu showing they can play both defense and offense better than he can.  You've gotta figure D. Young might be their first option and hopefully putting him into that role doesn't typecast him or ruin his development.  Nomar could make sense as a pinch hitter, especially in situations when you need the ball put into play and can't afford a strikeout.  I doubt he accepts this role and is making too much to be in that role.  He probably needs to be dealt for someone else's detritus that's already in such a role plus a reliever or something. 

Relief Pitching

Dodgers have been alright picking up decent arms up until they dumpster dived for Roberto Hernandez.  I'm thinking it is make it or break it for Greg Miller and he could be traded away for near nothing if he doesn't impress in spring training.  Hopefully they can get Chin-hui Tsao to re-sign but I read he stated he wanted to go to a team that would start him again so he may have no interest in re-signing.  I think if Jonathan Meloan has a decent spring he'll be the 7'th inning guy.  I'm going to assume Takashi Saito comes back and that the league still won't have figured him out, because he's not a gimmick, he's just good.  Hopefully they give him another half a million dollar raise or whatever he wants as he'll still be a bargain compared to the craziness Mariano Rivera is demanding.  I'm going to guess the dodgers' starters will still fail to go deep into games just like the last two years so, of course Scott Proctor continues to be pitched every other day for the 5'th and 6'th innings.  Hopefully Meloan is consistent enough

that Proctor isn't pitched for three innings at a time too often.  Despite having Saito, Broxton, Proctor, and Meloan figuring to be pretty solid relievers, it still leaves me worried because a bullpen can only take so much before becoming ineffective.  Hopefully Beimel is still Beimel and doesn't turn back into the guy that sucked for the d-rays.  Another possibility is that the good, young pitchers get the Chad Billingsley treatment and eliminate some of the need of Torre pitching the heck out of Proctor.

Summary

So the dodgers really shouldn't do much of anything as their once highly heralded prospects are finally paying dividends for the most part by staking claim to starting jobs.  Production from almost every position except center field and second base should improve.  The need to go after more starting pitching shouldn't be so strong because of the increasing closeness of the elite pitching prospects to the MLB level.  The signing of free agent veteran stopgaps like Luis Gonzalez is most likely over as well.  This shouldn't stop the dodgers from moving a young player that becomes expendable because of other moves if the opportunity presents itself.  Taking into account who the G.M. is, don't expect a windfall from any such moves.  Just gotta hope the wrong people don't get hurt and the GM is less worried about depth than previous offseasons.