11/15/07

Why The Dodgers Don't Need To Trade For Erik Bedard

O.K. Here is the latest rumor. Dodgers maybe going after a young starting pitcher. Here's the good part

To this point, the Orioles have gauged league interest in Bedard, 28, who went 13-5 this season with a 3.16 ERA and set a franchise season record with 221 strikeouts despite missing the last month of the season with an oblique injury. They've found plenty of interested parties, including the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers.
.... And here is why the dodgers shouldn't trade for him. First he's too old and not dominant enough for the dodgers to give up a prospect package for. When I mean not dominant enough I mean in comparison to other left handed starting pitchers that will eventually be on the block (Johan). The plus on Bedard is he doesn't have many innings on his arm and may keep up this performance level, but on the downside it could be interpreted that he has already peaked. The knock on Johan is he's racked up a bit of innings on that arm and had a down year for him. When you have the best or close to best pitching prospects, why get Erik Bedard when you can wait and spend the same prospects on Johan Santana? Worst case scenario is all your prospects arms fall off in the year you waited and lose all their value. If the other team must trade a guy, they can only get back the best offer presented. Johan owns Bedard and there's no reason to blow the wad on Bedard and let someone else pick up a better pitcher for less talent later.

Second, it would take a second pitching prospect to get him which would mean overpaying. Third, even if Erik could repeat his great season over at dodger stadium, assuming the dodgers don't get anyone else of note, he doesn't improve the dodgers enough to justify trading away the young talent to obtain. In short, the dodgers aren't built to 'win now' enough to get Bedard (or Santana, but that's for another blog posting).

Fourth, the dodgers cannot 'grow' their own rotation a la the braves if they change course and pursue kinda good talent with premium prospects they will just squander all the hard work and luck in developing 3 or 4 potentially great young starting pitchers in Billingsley, Kershaw, Elbert, and Morris with an up and coming yet lower ceiling, back-end-rotation guy in McDonald. Why mess with this? There is nothing more valuable and volatile as a pitching 'prospect'. Huge gamble, but Logan White seems to pick them well.

Fifth, and I'm getting petty here now, his closest comparable on his baseball-reference.com page is Noah Lowry.

I primarily believe the dodgers just need to be as patient or more patient with their young pitchers as they have been with the position players that have finally come up. They need to be more because a few kids have been let go for nothing that are starting elsewhere, like the Flyin' Hawaiian. The pitchers are behind the position players in terms of development but they are finally almost here. It's also frustrating to watch a G.M. that seems to not learn the lesson after so many young players splashed big time into their major league careers that maybe he can loosen up on being so slow to award a young player a starting job. It pretty much seems to have been a detriment to the team's record this season (not totally fair, Jason Schmidt and other pitching injuries really hurt, but stupid lineups were a close second in my opinion).

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